Keir Starmer Is 1/3 to Be Gone From PM Job Before 2027
by Roy Brindley,
20 April 2026
Can Keir Starmer survive yet more Peter Mandelson fallout? The bookies say it is 1/3 that the PM will be gone sometime in 2026.
Can Keir Starmer survive the latest round of controversy? The bookmakers suggest he will go in 2026. ©Getty
Key Facts:
- Keir Starmer is under fire following further Peter Mandelson fallout.
- Bookies say it is 1/3 that the PM will leave No. 10 in 2026.
- Angela Rayner is the 9/4 favourite to be the next Labour leader.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is facing mounting political pressure following fresh controversy surrounding the appointment of Peter Mandelson as the UK’s Ambassador to the United States.
Earlier this year, Starmer’s position appeared tenuous amid internal frustrations over Mandelson’s appointment. In February, when Scotland’s Labour leader urged him to quit, political betting markets at UK online betting sites quoted a 2026 Starmer departure on 1/5 odds.
The situation appeared to stabilise after the resignation of senior aide Morgan McSweeney. However, a new row has emerged after it was revealed that Mandelson had failed security vetting checks before his appointment. Despite this, the failures were reportedly overruled within the Foreign Office, allowing the appointment to proceed.
Is Starmer 75% Likely to Vacate His PM Post in 2026?
Before the latest revelation, Starmer had firmed in the betting with a 2026 departure priced on 8/11 odds. However, bookmakers quickly moved that price to 1/3, believing it is 75% likely that the 63-year-old will cease to be Prime Minister sometime in the next eight months.
William Hill and other UK bookmakers have a 2027 departure quoted on 4/1 odds. 2028 is a 9/1 shot, and 2029 or any time afterwards is rated a 10/1 shot. Angela Rayner is the 9/4 favourite in the market to be the next Labour leader.
Downing Street did move swiftly to sack a senior Foreign Office official, Sir Olly Robbins, within days of the latest scandal breaking. However, this time, the departure of a senior figure failed to see Starmer’s odds of survival beyond 2026 shrink.
If No Resignation Is Forthcoming, What Hope for the Punters?
The controversy has prompted widespread criticism across the political spectrum. Leaders of the Conservatives, SNP, Greens, general election favourites, Reform UK and Liberal Democrats have all called for Starmer to resign, with many questioning whether the Prime Minister intentionally misled Parliament.
Despite the backlash, Number 10 continues to insist the Prime Minister acted appropriately, and Starmer, 63, appears determined to serve out his five-year term with resignation not on his agenda.
Forcing Starmer out of office would not be easy. He would need to be challenged, and any challenger will face a series of hurdles – not least the need to hold a seat in Parliament.
The challenger must secure the nomination of at least 20% of Labour members in the House of Commons, 81 MPs. After clearing that obstacle, a successful nominee would then have to beat Starmer in a vote of the party’s quarter of a million rank-and-file members.
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Keir Starmer Is 1/3 to Be Gone From PM Job Before 2027
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