Is There Any Value in the King George VI Chase Betting?

by Roy Brindley, 25 November 2025

Kempton’s King George VI Chase is shaping up to be a cracking contest. Do the latest odds offer any gifts for punters on this Boxing Day treat?

Gaelic Warrior and his regular rider, Paul Townend, are likely to represent Willie Mullins in the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day. © Getty Images

• The King George VI Chase picture became clearer following a fantastic weekend of racing.
• Gaelic Warrior outbattled stablemate Fact To File to strengthen as the big-race favourite.
• Following Haydock victory, Harry Redknapp’s The Jukebox Man is now 5/1 from 14/1.
• Grey Dawning and Banbridge do nothing wrong but drift in the King George betting.

The complexion of the King George VI Chase betting market changed significantly over the weekend when the winners of three key races showcased their credentials for glory in National Hunt racing’s second biggest chase.

Strengthening his position at the head of the King George betting, Gaelic Warrior outbattled stablemate Fact To File to score by a neck in a pulsating finish to the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown.

Wide-margin Ascot success saw Jango Baie’s King George VI Chase odds slashed from 14/1 into 4/1 after Nicky Henderson’s lightly-raced six-year-old landed the Ladbrokes 1965 Chase. There was a similar price cut for The Jukebox Man, who scored at Haydock 20 minutes later. The best online betting sites now make the Harry Redknapp-owned horse a 5/1 chance (from 16/1).

Winners and Losers Are Price Drifters

Moving the other direction in the betting, Il Est Francais was pushed out to 25/1 (from 8/1) for the Boxing Day centrepiece after he was pulled-up in the Ascot race won by Jango Baie. Pic Dorhy, beaten over 30 lengths in the same contest, has drifted to 100/1 from 25/1.

"What a leap at the last" for Jango Baie as @NdeBoinville takes victory in the 1965 Chase at @Ascot pic.twitter.com/a7UpayPvgP

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) November 22, 2025

Even the defending King George champion, Banbridge, who has yet to make his seasonal reappearance, has had his odds lengthened. The Irish-trained runner is out to 16/1 having been 10/1 ahead of last weekend’s key King George trial races.

Another horse that can be backed at bigger odds than a week ago is Grey Dawning. On a day of top-class action, this Dan Skelton-trained horse improved on his second-place effort in 2024’s Betfair Chase to take the Haydock Grade-1 at a second attempt on Saturday.

However, after the race, his trainer, Dan Skelton, indicated his eight-year-old grey would swerve the King George – a race he started as third favourite in last season but was pulled-up – and instead head to Cheltenham for the Cotswold Chase.

Folly to File Away Those Fact Bets

From a punter’s perspective, the most difficult potential King George contestant to assess is Fact To File. Well adrift of the pacesetting Gaelic Warrior until five furlongs from home in Saturday’s John Durkan Memorial, he appeared to be travelling like the winner from two fences from home.

Nevertheless, Gaelic Warrior tenaciously rallied to win the race in a photo finish, suggesting that over 20 furlongs, there is little between the stablemates. The Ladbrokes King George VI Chase is raced over an additional four furlongs on a flatter track. But will both horses head to the UK after this encounter?

✅ GAELIC WARRIOR now rated as the third best chaser in Ireland, with an official HRI rating of 174.

👍 Only INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN and GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (both 176) are rated higher at this stage.

🟢🟡 FACT TO FILE unchanged on 173 after the John Durkan.pic.twitter.com/hdORLsniZc

— Road To Cheltenham (@RoadCheltenham) November 24, 2025

After their epic clash on Saturday, asked on Racing TV, “Will we see the two of them go their separate ways this Christmas?” their trainer, Willie Mullins, replied, “I’d like to send one to Kempton and one to Leopardstown, but we will see how they recover,”, adding “they have had a tough enough race”.

In early-season interviews, Mullins made no bones about his desire for Gaelic Warrior to make an assault on Kempton’s showpiece race. Punters should therefore be as cautious as the betting sites about Fact To File’s chances also heading to the King George.

Bookmakers are clearly wary of Mullins’ tendency to take a change of heart. Last year, the trainer shockingly took all of his eight initial entries out of the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at a late November forfeit stage.

Fact To File’s King George odds range between William Hill’s 4/1 and 8/1 (bet365). Given a ‘with a run’ or ‘non-runner no bet’ proviso, either price would attract an avalanche of support for the 2025 Ryanair Chase winner.