Lando Norris Is Priced 1/3 to Win F1 Championship in Abu Dhabi

by Roy Brindley, 2 December 2025

Formula 1’s 2025 World Drivers’ Championship is set to go down to the wire in Abu Dhabi this weekend.

Oscar Piastri (centre), Lando Norris (right) and Max Verstappen all have a chance of winning F1’s World Drivers’ Championship on Sunday. © Getty Images

Key Facts:

• Lando Norris is odds-on to claim his maiden F1 World Drivers’ Championship title on Sunday.
• Max Verstappen is 12 points adrift in the standings with nothing to lose.
• Championship success could make Norris’s 9/2 Sports Personality of the Year odds a knockout bet.

The 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship will be decided at the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi this weekend. Three drivers are in title contention. Lando Norris heads the standings with 408 points, giving him a 12-point lead over Max Verstappen. On 392 points, Oscar Piastri is a further four points adrift.

Norris and Piastri are seeking their first titles. Verstappen is chasing his fifth successive championship. The Dutchman first became world champion in nail-biting and controversial circumstances at this venue in 2021.

UK online betting sites make Norris the clear favourite to clinch the title. His task is straightforward: finish ahead of or relatively close to his rivals in Sunday’s floodlit race. In a worst-case scenario, if Verstappen were to win the contest, something he has done in five of the last eight races, a podium finish would still secure Norris the title.

At 3/1, the Price Is Right

Given the capabilities of his car and proven likeness for tracks of this type – technically challenging, demanding medium-to-high levels of downforce – the 1/3 odds about Norris taking a maiden title are justified.

However, Max Verstappen is renowned for a ruthless streak and his associated ‘elbows out’ racing style. It means the Red Bull driver is likely to capitalise on Norris’ need to complete the race, and the 3/1 odds about him finding a way to prevail are equally warranted.

In an amazing run of form, Verstappen has gone from being 104 points adrift of the then-championship leader, Oscar Piastri, at the season’s 16th race (the Italian Grand Prix) to four points ahead of his rival less than three months later.

Everyone Needs a Number Two

If Verstappen had a teammate to rely on as a spoiler – a task Sergio Perez performed in this race in 2021 – bookmakers would be even more respectful of his world championship chances. But Yuki Tsunoda is a subordinate driver who could easily end his season 18th in the standings.

Here are all the ways either Lando, Max or Oscar could clinch the Drivers' Championship in Abu Dhabi 📊 pic.twitter.com/79WHeebpHw

— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) December 1, 2025

This race could be labelled ‘the duel in the desert’, but any suggestions that it is a straight match are misguided. As a teammate, Oscar Piastri will be as much use to Lando Norris as Yuki Tsunoda is to Verstappen. Claiming maximum points while his rivals bash heads (and wheels) will be his primary objective.

A desperate tactical error in last weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix cost the Australian race victory and all but dashed his championship chances. There has long been mumbling from within the Piastri camp that McLaren is favouring Norris ahead of him.

If last weekend’s outcome has pushed him over the edge, perhaps Piastri will adopt Tsunoda’s role and play a part in Norris’s downfall as an act of ‘it’s not fair’ rebellion – fuelled by a liberal application of blood rushing to his head.

Piastri, managed by Mark Webber, a former driver forever associated with the phrase “not bad for a number two driver,” is 14/1 to take the title by outscoring Verstappen by five points and Norris by 16.

If Norris Converts 1/3 Odds, 9/2 for Sports Award Will Be Value

The permutations may be endless, but as usual, bookmakers’ odds are an accurate illustration of each driver’s chances. Those same bookmakers cannot decide on Norris’s chances of winning the BBC Sports Personality of the Year.

The sportsbook arm of BetVictor quotes the 26-year-old Brit at 3/1. Ladbrokes is far more dismissive. Industry’s shortest odds in making Rory McIlroy its 6/5 favourite, the famous British bookmaker offers Lando Norris at odds of 9/2.

Except for athletics, Formula 1 drivers have won more Sports Personality of the Year awards than sportspeople representing any other sport. The 9/2 price, therefore, makes plenty of appeal, and it could be one of the better betting propositions on offer ahead of Sunday’s decisive race.