Democrats Win Big, Proving the Presidential Race Is On

by Roy Brindley, 10 November 2025

If Trump is not happy that Zohran Mamdani is New York City’s new Mayor, wait until he looks at the latest Presidential betting!

New York’s new Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, with Bernie Sanders and potential Democratic Presidential nominee, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. © Getty Images

Key Facts:

• The newly elected Mayor of New York City has shaken up the Presidential betting market.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the big price mover in the Democratic candidate race.
• Vance versus Newsom is the most likely heads-up battle.
• 70% probability that Trump will go the distance.

A big week of elections in the USA has seen some significant changes made to the betting on the 2028 Presidential Election. The headline result, Zohran Mamdani’s success in the New York City mayoral race, has had the most significant impact.

The Democrat defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa, much to the displeasure of Donald J. Trump. In July, on his Truth social media platform, he wrote: “As President of the United States, I’m not going to let this Communist Lunatic destroy New York. Rest assured, I hold all the levers, and have all the cards.”

Other upsetting results for the President saw Virginia flip from Republican to Democratic control and New Jersey remain in Democratic hands in the governorship races. In California, voters approved a key redistricting measure, giving the Democratic-controlled legislature more control over congressional map drawing —and potentially a five-seat gain at the next election.

Ocasio-Cortez Is the Big Market Mover

The results are a far cry from last year’s presidential election, when the Democrats were left searching for answers after Donald Trump and his Republican Party recorded a dominant victory. They have also come precisely one year ahead of the vital 2026 midterm elections.

Following the election results, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has moved ahead of Donald Trump Sr. in William Hill’s market to become the next US President. With the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution stating that “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice,” Trump’s inclusion in the William Hill betting list is questionable.

Ocasio-Cortez, the representative for New York’s 14th congressional district, who endorsed Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race, is now 9/1 to become the 48th President of the United States. The 36-year-old is also 5/1 to be the Democratic candidate when the country goes to the polls on November 7, 2028.

Trump has done nothing but cater to his billionaire friends. The result?

Folks on Amazon paying 12% more.
Folks at Target paying 5.5% more
Folks at Walmart paying 5.3% more.

Donald Trump said he would make us healthier and wealthier.

Instead, we're poorer and sicker. pic.twitter.com/JM9fpBukj5

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) November 9, 2025

I7/2 a Vance vs Newsom Heads-up Battle

Only Gavin Newsom trades shorter in the Democratic candidate betting. The Governor of California is 7/4 to represent the party at the election and 7/2 to become President. On the other side of the ring, the betting suggests that JD Vance is the person who will lead the Republican Party into battle at the next election.

The Vice President is 5/2 to succeed Trump in the White House hot seat and 4/5 to be the Republican nominee. According to the betting, alternatives are difficult to identify. In price order, if Vance does not run, Marco Rubio (8/1), Ron DeSantis (14/1), Donald Trump Jr. (14/1) and Steve Bannon (25/1) are others to consider.

Ladbrokes is now offering 7/2 odds on JD Vance and Gavin Newsom being the Republican and Democratic Nominees. Following last week’s elections, the same firm pushed the Republican Party’s odds of election success to even money .

In any scenario, the UK’s online betting sites do not foresee Donald Trump failing to go the distance. A 2026 departure from office is quoted on 6/1, and both 2027 and 2028 can be backed at 8/1. However, 2029 is quoted at 4/9 odds, giving a Trump full-term a probability of almost 70%.