Will Saturday’s Strictly Come Dancing Be Won by Popular Vote?

by Roy Brindley, 18 December 2025

If Saturday’s Strictly Come Dancing final becomes a popularity contest, Amber Davies will justify her 40/1 odds, and George Clarke will win.

Amber Davies in a scene from ‘The Great Gatsby’ performed in the London Coliseum. © Getty Images

Key Facts:

• Top scorer, Amber Davies, is the 40/1 underdog in Saturday’s Strictly Come Dancing final.
• Player turned soccer commentator, Karen Carney, is trading as Strictly’s 4/9 favourite.
• A public-only vote system could play into George Clarke’s hands.

She may have topped the weekly scores four times and cumulatively outscored her two remaining rivals by a wide margin. Still, former Love Island winner Amber Davies is the 40/1 underdog in Saturday’s Strictly Come Dancing final.

The TV personality was drafted into the contest at short notice when another Love Island recruit, Dani Dyer, was injured. From the outset, 29-year-old Davies has been the subject of trolling from detractors, many of whom complain about her dancing background.

Having trained at Urdang Academy – which specialises in dance and musical theatre – the Welsh star has been cast in several musicals, including The Great Gatsby in London’s West End.

Are the Bookies on the Ball With Karen Carney?

While the scores indicate that she is the best performer by a considerable margin, a generous slice of the voting public seems content to ignore Davies, suggesting she holds an unfair advantage.

UK’s top online bookmakers are also happy to write her chances off. Ladbrokes is offering a standout 50/1 about Davies and her professional dance partner, Nikita Kuzmin. Instead, it is football legend Karen Carney, partnered with dancer Carlos Gu, that the bookies favour.

The player turned soccer commentator, trading as Strictly’s 4/9 favourite, has topped the scores twice – in week one and in last weekend’s semi-finals. Whereas Davies has averaged 35.5 points per dance, Carney’s competition average is 32.8.

69% Is Impressive, but It Is No 1/10 Shot

Social media personality and YouTuber George Clarke, along with his dance partner Alexis Warr, complete the trio in the final. Despite never topping the scorecards, averaging lower than the eliminated Lewis Cope, and earning the lowest scores on week five, Clarke is just 15/8 to win the show.

At 4/9, Carney’s odds suggest her chances of winning Strictly Come Dancing are 69%; 15/8 puts Clarke’s chances around 35%. The mantle of betting favourite augurs well for Carney. Chris McCausland was a winning favourite last year, as was Ellie Leach in 2023. Their odds were much shorter – 1/12 and 1/10.

However, George Clarke was the odds-on competition favourite ahead of the semi-finals, and it is conceivable he will be backed down from his current odds ahead during the week and on the final night.

Finals night will see the finalists perform three times apiece and, supposedly, the public will vote on those performances. They will not, and the outcome is likely to be more based on popularity than dancing ability.

Clarke Holds the Advantage on Pure Popularity

And popularity is something George Clarke, 26, from Bristol, has in spades. The social media star boasts 2.3 million followers on TikTok and 639,000 subscribers on YouTube. And he now says all sorts of new fans are starting to stop him on the street.

“It [Strictly] is a completely different world to what I’m used to. I’m used to performing to a camera that’s right in front of my face, and I cut out all of the rubbish bits. Unfortunately, I can’t do that on the ballroom floor,” Clarke told a press conference earlier in the week.

Should his newfound audience join just some of Clarke’s existing fanbase, he is sure to garner a mountain of votes. With the Strictly Come Dancing final show being decided entirely on public votes, could he join I’m a Celebrity winner Angryginge as the second social media star to win a televote TV show this December?