Early 2026 Eurovision Betting Is Headed by Israel and Finland

by Roy Brindley, 26 January 2026

Five established Eurovision Song Contest countries are boycotting the 2026 event, where bookmakers favour Finland and Israel.

Pro-Palestine protestors and Icelandic singer Páll Óskar demonstrate outside the office of Iceland’s state broadcaster RUV on the day it said it would boycott the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest. © Getty Images

Key Facts:

• Ireland, Iceland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain will miss the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest.
• Israel’s unfair voting practices exposed and loopholes closed.
• Finland and Israel are the early Eurovision betting favourites.
• February will be a busy Eurovision month with many nations revealing their song.

Israel and Finland are the early favourites for the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest. The famous song contest will kick into gear over the coming weeks, with several official entries being revealed. The competition’s grand final will take place in Vienna on May 16.

Ireland will not take part. In December, its state broadcaster, RTÉ, said it felt that Israel’s participation is “unconscionable given the appalling loss of lives in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis there which continues to put the lives of so many civilians at risk.”

Iceland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain have also opted out of the competition, citing similar reasons. These and other countries also pointed to the revelation that Israel exploited unfair voting practices to boost its chances in last year’s event.

Israel Exposed in Mass Voting Scheme

Perplexed by Israel ‘winning’ the televote section of 2025’s contest, the Irish, Spanish, Belgian, Dutch and other national broadcasters requested a breakdown or audit of the televoting results, harbouring concerns the public vote was influenced.

An inquiry exposed how the Israeli Government Advertising Agency, which serves various government offices, placed adverts across Google products (such as YouTube) and provided instructions on how to vote for the country’s representative up to 20 times.

Despite finishing only 15th in the judges-vote section of the competition, Israel’s combined score was good enough for second overall. In 2024, Israel finished second in the televote – while its 52 ‘judges’ points represented at least half that of nine other countries.

In response to the controversy, new rules have been put in place ahead of the 2026 contest to reduce the maximum number of votes per person and discourage disproportionate promotion by broadcasters or governments.

Public Vote for Finland and Sweden

Given the rule change, online bookmakers decision to make Israel the competition’s 5/1 favourite is peculiar. It’s representative, Noam Bettan, has been revealed, but his song will not be made public until March.

Finland will select its Eurovision representative through its national final, Uuden Musiikin Kilpailu, scheduled to be broadcast on February 28. Seven acts are in contention to represent the nation, which finished runner-up in 2023 and won the competition in 2006.

Sweden, perennially situated towards the top of the Eurovision betting lists, is another country that chooses its song through public competition. It does so via a show called Melodifestivalen. First staged in 1959, it is one of the most popular TV programs in the country.

This year, Melodifestivalen will take place over six weeks from January 31 to March 7. Thirty acts are in contention, including Robin Bengtsson, who finished fifth for Sweden in the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest.

February Will Be the Big Reveal

Sweden is 8/1 to win Eurovision 2026, followed by Ukraine at 10/1 and Greece at 12/1. Italy, which will announce its winner at the San Remo Music Festival on February 28, is next in the betting at 14/1.

Luxembourg (16/1), Malta (25/1), Moldova (40/1), Albania (80/1), and Montenegro (100/1) are the five countries that have already released their 2026 Eurovision song. Ukraine, Denmark, Estonia, and Latvia have all committed to unveiling their contenders in the opening two weeks of February.

No date has been given for the UK’s song announcement. As has been the case since 2020, its selection will be made internally without public consultation. The nation last won the contest in 1997 and has finished last five times since.