The Set-Up
Back in September 2009, renowned ‘mentalist’ Derren Brown announced to the world that he would host a live show that would run parallel to the UK National Lottery draw. His initial goal was to guess ‘at least five of the six’ winning numbers yet he ended up correctly predicting all six numbers (minus the bonus ball) much to the amazement of his audience and to the interest of all fans of lottery sites.
The Results
The Derren Brown lottery stunt itself was conducted by a humble crew of just two cameramen and the illusionist himself in an empty studio. Visually, the trick featured a set of white balls arranged in a line, each facing the wall behind them whilst a television broadcast a live feed of the live lottery draw from BBC One.
After the winning lottery numbers were announced, Brown wrote the draw results on a white card just before he turned the white balls around to face the camera. Upon the turning of each white ball, it was revealed that the numbers on the balls and those on the card were the exact same.
As it stood the six winning numbers were 2, 11, 23, 28, 35, and 39, however, his predictions did not include the bonus ball which was the number 15. Upon the reveal of this remarkable feat, a visibly relieved Brown offered up the explanation that this incomprehensible feat of psychic ability was the realization of a year’s hard work and a result of highly powerful mathematics.
The Fallout
His subsequent television special that offered up a more detailed explanation of these techniques drew a lot of controversy and condemnation from outraged statisticians and mathematicians across the country, and the media had a field day covering their outrage.
Throughout the upcoming sections, we will discuss some of the profoundly complex odds surrounding lottery wins and also highlight some of these concerns and offer up some explanations as to how Brown managed to suspend belief and accomplish this unbelievable stunt,
Probabilities of Predicting the Lottery
Perhaps the best place to begin this discussion is to first discuss just how likely one is to win the lottery in the first place. In an attempt to answer this question, the Brazillian mathematician and academic Renatio Gianella carried out extensive research into 20 different international lotteries over a period of years.
After applying a range of complicated equations and extensive statistical analysis to each draw, his research concluded that some winning lottery combinations are more likely than others. According to Gianella ‘the lottery should no longer be seen as a form of gambling, but a true representation of probability and the Law of Numbers’.
Skeptics of this theory have argued that this model of explanation only works when viewed over a long time. Therefore, such statistics mean nothing to the individual in the short term, and there are no real guarantees when it comes to lottery numbers.
Despite such claims, nobody really knows what numbers will come up as each number combination has the exact same chance of being drawn. While there might not be a fool-proof method of easily taking home a mega jackpot every week, some fascinating coincidences and trivia are surrounding certain lottery numbers that might just improve your chances in the long term.
Hottest Lottery Numbers
Since 1994, there have been six numbers in particular that have contributed to the most prize-winning combinations in UK lottery history. These magical numbers are 3, 6, 13, 23, 27, and 49, and have contributed to over £2.5 million in lottery payouts thus far.
While the most superstitious amongst you might already be reading this and thinking about throwing this combination into all future tickets, we have to reiterate that the chances of these six popular numbers appearing are just as likely as any other combination. At the end of the day, it seems like having Lady Luck on your side is the most valuable asset of all.
Interesting Lottery Trivia
Although the reality that each number combination has an equal chance of occurring might ruin some of the magic and romance of the lottery for some, bizarre events of chance and circumstance still occur every day without explanation. As a quick aside, we thought we’d include some fascinating statistics surrounding lotteries.
- The odds of winning the lottery are 350 billion to 1
- The odds of being killed by a vending machine is 112 million to 1, meaning its more likely to happen to you than winning the lottery
- 70% of jackpot winners have used random picks
- in 2010, Israel’s weekly lottery drew the exact same six numbers that were drawn three weeks previous, the odds of this happening are 4 trillion to 1
As you can see, lotteries heavily depend upon randomness and luck remains the most vital ingredient to winning them. This is further evidenced by the fact that many people have won them without using complicated algebra or equations. When taken these factors into consideration with the Derren Brown lottery stunt, it makes the trick itself all the more impressive.
The Wisdom of Crowds
Casting our sights back to Derren Brown, his contentious explanation of how he achieved the trick claimed that it was based on a phenomenon known as the ‘Wisdom of Crowds’. This mathematical trick allegedly dates back to early country fairs, when the weight of an ox could be correctly guessed using the average of the various guesses from people in the crowd.
To test this phenomenon, Brown gathered a group of 24 participantsand presented them with a year’s worth of lottery numbers. He then asked them to write down their lottery predictions before adding up the guesses for each ball and dividing these by 24 to get the average guess.
He claimed that the group was initially only able to correctly guess one ball at a time. However, as time went on and the experiment was reproduced more, the group was eventually able to come together and correctly predict more and more numbers with each new attempt.
By the time of the live lottery draw itself, the group had allegedly honed their technique enough to correctly guess six lottery numbers, and it was simply the case of Brown taking their averages and ‘the wisdom of the crowd’ to successfully predict the lottery.
The Scepticism of Crowds
However, there was no shortage of skeptics as a result of this explanation, and a Guardian poll carried out after the premiere of the trick found that many believed the result to be due to trickery. Similarly, many mathematicians believed this ‘wisdom of the crowds’ explanation to be simply bogus and misleading.
As a result, a prevalent theory emerged from the public that the trick might have been achieved using split-screen camera manipulation.
A Trick of the Light?
Before the grand finale, Brown claimed that there were only two camera operators with him in the otherwise empty studio, to avoid legal issues. He also asserted that Camelot, the National Lottery operators had also given the stunt the green light.
This led to much speculation that the left side of the screen was actually pre-recorded footage. The only part of the broadcast going out live was the right-hand side which featured Brown and the television screen. This way, we’re unable to see what’s happening on the side with the white balls.
Instead of writing down the numbers as they’re revealed, Brown instead waited to the end when the numbers were revealed. This led to the theory Brown and his crew were simply buying time and manipulating the correct numbers into place before Brown came over to the left side of the screen to reveal his ‘correct’ predictions, thus syncing both sides of the screen up again as a live broadcast.
The trick then is that the viewer thinks they are simply looking at one, continuous live broadcast when in fact their attention is being diverted towards Brown on the right-hand side while his crew simply put the numbers from the BBC broadcast into place.
Final Thoughts
Unfortunately, the true secret of the trick lies with Brown and perhaps his crew, however, magicians are notorious for never revealing their secrets. Although if the work of Derren Brown has taught us anything, it’s that the real magic exists when a performer can trick their audience through spectacle and speculation, not by redefining the laws of probability.
Frequently Asked Questions
As we draw this article to a close, we‘d like to feature some of the most commonly asked questions by our readers. Whether you want to learn more about profound odds or simply discover tips and tricks that will help you win bigger payouts, be sure to check out some of our other informative guides for further insight into the gambling world. Best of luck out there!
Did Derren Brown really predict the lottery?
Although Derren Brown’s lottery trick has led to much speculation, the truth remains anyone’s guess as magicians never reveal their secrets. Despite the condemnation of his explanation by mathematicians, the reality is that perhaps only Brown and his crew know the full story. If you’d like to learn more about Brown’s mind-bending body of work. Click here for more stunts.
How does Derren Brown do the lottery?
The stunt was presented by Brown in front of a television displaying the live results of the BBC One lottery draw. He wrote the results out on a card before turning the six white balls around to reveal that the winning numbers and his previously predicted numbers were the same. Although a variety of explanations were given, the reality is that, much like slot machines, lotteries rely on random number generators which means luck is the most important factor of all.
Has anyone predicted the lottery?
Although Derren Brown is the most famous case of someone claiming to predict the lottery, the simple answer is no. This is largely due to the fact there are no real guarantees when it comes to lottery numbers. Despite such claims, nobody truly knows what numbers will come up as each number combination has the same chance of being drawn. If you’d like to learn more about astounding odds, check out our blogpost on the subject here.
