UKGC Makes Key Finding from Illegal Online Gambling Project

by James Gibson, 13 November 2025

UK gambling regulator concludes a study looking at the scale of illegal online gambling.

UKGC’s series on illegal online gambling reaches its conclusion. © Grizzlybear-se, Pixabay

Key Facts:

• The UKGC carried out an illegal online gambling project in four parts.
• The regulator has made an important conclusion based on the project’s findings.
• This is the difficulty in determining the size of the black market.

The UKGC has concluded a research project that looked into illegal online gambling and was carried out in four parts. The project has revealed ongoing difficulties in determining the actual size of the black market.

The gambling regulator’s report, “Estimating the Size of the Illegal Online Gambling Market”, collects months of reviews looking at enforcement efforts, risk assessment and consumer behaviour. It concludes that limited data prevents market sizes from being accurately measured.

The Difficulties in Determining the Black Market’s Scale

The UKGC was unable to state with confidence and accuracy exactly how large the illegal online gambling black market was. Doing so was said to be methodologically complex due to the limited data.

Another factor that made it difficult to calculate the size of the illegal online gambling black market was people’s assumptions about the problem. These undermined the UKGC’s confidence in any of its findings.

The UK government has encountered similar problems when trying to determine the size of illegal black markets, such as the tobacco one. The UKGC noted the similarities it faced in its own project.

During its project, the UKGC considered using three different methods to clarify how large the illegal online gambling market is. The dwell time method converts data on player engagement into estimates of spending amounts.

Then there’s the channelisation method, which compares how often people access both legal and illegal gambling websites. The third and final method uses surveys to gather key data from participants.

For its research project, the UKGC only used the first two methods. It decided against the survey-based one because it was believed that participants wouldn’t be willing to provide full, accurate details on their gambling activity.

Together, the first two methods were successful in that they provided important insights into the issue. However, they collectively failed to generate a conclusive estimate of how large the UK’s illegal online gambling market is.

The project’s report concluded that more work on the two methods is needed. As a result, the UKGC is unable to publish a reliable estimate on the size of the illegal online gambling black market in the UK.

Findings from the Two Methods Used

The dwell time method, for example, yielded some findings, but these were determined to be less reliable than they could have been. This is because of the small number of players involved (117).

What the research project found through its dwell time approach was that sports betting was the most popular type of gambling practised at illegal sites (34%). This was followed by bingo (14%) and slots and instant win games (13%).

As for the channelisation method, this involved the verification of app usage and web traffic data to provide reliable estimates. For this approach, the UKGC first put together a list of operators licensed in the UK.

It then utilised analytical data from SimilarWeb, despite apparent limitations, such as a lack of insight into the usage of apps developed by illicit sites. It reiterated the importance of licensed operators fully cooperating to ensure accurate results.

What was noted from this method was that even small differences in estimations can have significant effects on financial figures. For example, the gross gambling yield from April 2023 to March 2024 was £6.9 billion.

If this figure were to be off by even 0.5%, it would represent a substantial amount of money (roughly £34.5 million). In other words, accuracy and full compliance aren’t just recommended, they’re necessary.

Where the UKGC Goes from Here

Even though the UKGC couldn’t determine the size of the UK’s illegal online gambling black market, the regulator said some things have improved. Thanks to the research project, it has a better understanding of illegal gambling.

It knows more about how operators of illegal gambling sites function and why some people choose illegal sites over legal ones. The project found that many people don’t realise a gambling site is illegal.

It also found that some people with knowledge of the gambling sector deliberately avoid licensed, legal sites. This is because of restrictions on the gambling experience at legal sites or because a player has self-excluded.

A key finding was that there appears to be no continued growth in illegal gambling in places where data already exists. The UKGC maintained that it can’t protect everyone from illegal gambling and that the risk is still there.

What the regulator plans to do from now on is to keep up with its research and continue carrying out enforcement activities. This could involve looking at VPN usage and search engine inquiries for unlicensed operators.

Although the project is now complete, the UKGC remains fully committed to carrying out research and enforcing its standards. It’s determined to protect people from illegal gambling by working with operators and using data to guide its work.