Prediction Markets Would Be Classed as Gambling in the UK

by James Gibson, 11 February 2026

Prediction markets could face the same rules and regulations as gambling activities in the UK.

Prediction markets may be classed as gambling in the UK. © Kanchanara, Unsplash

Key Facts:

• Prediction markets have become quite popular in the US recently
• If they launch in the UK, the UKGC would treat them as gambling
• This is despite prediction markets being similar to financial trading tools

Prediction markets are platforms that allow users to trade shares based on future outcomes. Essentially, they allow you to stake money on real-life events without going through a gambling site. You buy and sell shares according to your prediction.

In recent years, prediction markets have become more widespread in the US. People in the States can make predictions about a range of events in sports, economics, and politics.

As of early 2026, prediction markets haven’t yet launched in the UK. The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has outlined its approach if these markets were to come to the UK.

The UKGC’s Approach to Prediction Markets

Even though some see prediction markets as financial tools, the UKGC has indicated it will treat them as gambling services. This was confirmed in a statement from Brad Enright, the UKGC’s Director of Strategy.

The statement affirmed that any sort of product that prediction markets meet the criteria for being classed as a type of gambling. As such, they would need to be licensed and regulated by the UKGC to operate in the UK.

Enright acknowledged that prediction markets are treated as financial trading services. However, the UKGC would treat them more like betting exchanges as they’re very similar; these exchanges have been operating in the UK for at least 20 years.

There is a type of betting that the UKGC wouldn’t necessarily class as gambling: spread betting. This would be regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) instead, as it’s more like financial trading than actual gambling.

Spread betting aside, any sort of platform that enables users to buy contracts based on event outcomes would need to be licensed by the UKGC. This is in accordance with British law.

To obtain a licence, an operator needs to pass stringent checks. Once a licence is obtained, the operator must continue to follow the rules and maintain the high standards demanded by the regulator.

The UKGC takes this approach for various reasons: to protect gamblers from harm, to promote fair and responsible gambling, to uphold the integrity of the market, and to prevent crime.

If an operator breaks a rule or fails to meet standards, the regulator acts swiftly. It’s been known to issue fines and even revoke licences from operators in the past.

Unlicensed Prediction Market Companies Told to Avoid the UK

The UKGC has issued a warning to prediction market companies. It’s urged them not to accept or promote their services to UK residents unless they’ve been granted a gambling licence. Unlicensed companies that do this may be breaking the law.

If a company carries out activities in the UK without a licence, this may affect the licences it holds in other places. It may, for example, result in licences being revoked.

In the US, there have been numerous cases of prediction market companies getting involved in regulatory disputes between federal watchdogs and state authorities. The UKGC has pointed out that the US is inherently different from the UK.

Looking at sports betting, it’s long been legal in the UK and is socially accepted as a pastime. By contrast, the legality of sports betting in the US varies from state to state.

It’s only in the last few years that states have started legalising sports betting, which explains the growth of online sportsbooks. The UKGC believes this is why prediction markets have taken off in the US, but not in the UK.