Reform UK Favoured to Win Most Seats at Next General Election

by Roy Brindley, 29 September 2025

Farage’s Reform UK is 10/11 to win the most seats at the next General Election.

If the UK went to the voting booths tomorrow, YouGov polls suggest Nigel Farage would emerge as the new British leader. © Getty Images

Key Facts:

• A YouGov poll suggests Reform UK is currently the UK’s most popular political party.
• Labour and Conservative parties would lose big if the country voted tomorrow.
• Despite the polls, a ‘hung parliament’ scenario is the 5/6 favourite.
• Starmer’s chances of being in power at the next election? Just 34.8 per cent!

If YouGov’s latest Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll is to be believed, barring a calamitous event, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party would win the most seats should a General Election be called imminently.

In the 2024 General Election, Labour won 411 out of 650 seats giving it an overall majority. According to online research data and analytics technology group, YouGov, the party would lose 267 MPs if an election were staged tomorrow.

It is also bad news for the Conservatives. Seventy-six of its 121 MPs would lose their jobs. And the big beneficiary? Reform UK. YouGov’s latest research suggests the Farage-led party, founded in 2018 (as the Brexit Party), would gain 306 seats in Parliament.

This tally would leave Reform UK, which currently has just five MPs, only 15 seats short of an absolute majority in the House of Commons. YouGov’s latest MRP therefore projects a hung parliament where Reform UK would be almost certain to form a minority or coalition government.

Momentum and Roll Not Reflected in the Odds

Reform UK is on a roll. A similar YouGov MRP survey in June indicated the party would be 55 seats short of a majority. Despite this momentum, the UK’s online bookmakers are not so enamoured with the current opinion polls.

Acutely aware that the UK’s next General Election could be held as late as July 2029, Britain’s bookmakers do not believe current polling data will equate to results on voting day.

Remarkably, Reform UK are quoted on 10/11 odds to win the most seats when the country goes to the ballot box. However, odds compilers at the sports betting arm of William Hill quote a ‘hung parliament’ scenario on ‘in-line’ odds of 5/6.

Starmer and a Majority Win Are Priced in the Red

Ahead of this week’s Labour Party Conference, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, amid mounting speculation that Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could launch a leadership challenge, told The Times newspaper he believes his government can still “pull this round.”

The former Director of Public Prosecutions has not looked at the latest betting. It may suggest that his party has plenty of time to turn the tide – a 2029 General Election quoted as an odds-on shot – but bookmakers offer 5/1 on Labour winning by a majority for a second consecutive time.

Interestingly, the betting suggests Starmer’s chances of still being in power when the country votes again are just 34.8% (15/8 odds). Andy Burnham is the 7/2 favourite in the market to be the next Labour leader.

Wes Streeting, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, is the 6/1 second favourite. However, YouGov’s latest poll projects his Ilford North constituency would elect a Reform UK candidate if an election were staged this week.