Rule Change Means the Monaco GP Could Be Entertaining
A one-off change to pitstop rules gives fans the chance of some entertainment in Sunday’s Monaco Grand Prix, but the best bet is no Safety Car.
Charles Leclerc led home a processional 2024 Monaco Grand Prix where there was no change to the top-10 on the starting grid. © Getty Images
Key Facts:
- Will Sunday’s Monaco Grand Prix be won on the Saturday once again?
- New pitstop rules could make this year’s race uniquely entertaining and shuffle the pack.
- The once inevitable Safety Car intervention is no longer a good thing in Monaco.
Formula 1’s poster race, the Monaco Grand Prix, takes place this weekend. Early betting suggests that Championship leader Oscar Piastri, teammate Lando Norris in the dominant McLaren, and four-time World Champion Max Verstappen are the drivers punters should concentrate on when attempting to identify the race winner.
This famous race was first staged in 1929 when cars started three abreast on the grid, and even the fastest of laps took over two minutes. Things have changed a great deal. While the contest remains the undisputed winner in the glamour and prestige stakes, for many, the circuit is unfit for purpose.
Last year, amongst the main protagonists, there was no change to the starting order. The first ten drivers on the grid finished the race in the positions they started. Put simply, the circuit is too narrow for drivers to overtake, and races typically become processional.
Three Drivers Have Dominated until Now
Teams and drivers regularly declare this to be “a race that is won on a Saturday” (during the qualifying session), and that opinion is underlined by the stats. Fifteen of the last 20 Monaco Grand Prix winners began the race from pole position.
Undoubtedly, the driver that qualifies on pole will start the Monaco Grand Prix as a short-priced favourite. In 2025, only three drivers have started from poll: Max Verstappen (three times), Oscar Piastri (three times) and Lando Norris (once).
This threesome has won all of 2025’s seven races and taken 16 of the 21 available trophies. Of the remaining 17 drivers, only George Russell has made a mark. The Mercedes driver claimed four silver medals and a bronze medal.
There is hope for a change to the established order and even a shock result of some kind. Early weather forecasts suggest a slight chance of rain during Saturday’s qualifying, and a change to the pitstop rules could also shuffle the pack.
Two Stops, Three Tyres and a Lot of Hope
The new pitstop regulation applies only to the Monaco Grand Prix, which is understandably not a big hit with Sky Sports viewers. Formula 1 says it is being implemented “with the primary intent of improving the sporting spectacle” of the event.
Tyre supplier Pirelli explains: “Drivers will now be required to use at least three sets of tyres in the race, with a minimum of two different tyre compounds to be used if conditions are dry.” In short, all drivers must take at least two pitstops.
This is a real step into the unknown. With defined pit-stop windows anything but clear at Monaco, plus the threat of Safety Car intervention overshadowing all 78 race laps, an upset of some sort is entirely possible.
No Safety Car for a Surprise but Not a Shock
Only one of the past 17 Monaco Grand Prix has been won by a margin over 10 seconds. In light of this, a big-margin winner would be a fitting surprise. However, online bookmakers quote the 10-plus seconds scenario on a miserly 7/2.
A better bet is the ‘no’ option in the ‘Will There be a Safety Car?’ market. It can be backed on 4/1 odds. Based on the fact that it was called into action in nine Grand Prix’s during the 2010s, it initially appears to be another poor proposition.
However, half of the previous six Monaco Grand Prix have seen the Safety Car parked up in the pit lane throughout the race. Last year it only made a fleeting appearance while a formation lap was organised on lap 2.
The willingness of organisers to call for an immediate ‘Red Flag’ – as was the case last year – and with the option of a Virtual Safety Car now at the Stewards’ disposal, the change in tide can be explained and it makes those 4/1 odds appear good value.
Recommended F1 bet for the Monaco Grand Prix: No Safety Car (4/1)
