F1: Who Will Get the Max Out of Jeddah? Red Bull or Mercedes?

by Roy Brindley, 1 December 2021

Just two races to go, and two Formula One Championships are still to be decided. That is the state of play ahead of this weekend’s Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

Only five points separate Mercedes and their pursuers, Red Bull, in the World Constructor’s Championship. The scores – 546.5 vs 541.5 – may be finely balanced however, the best price bookmakers are offering about Mercedes taking their eighth consecutive constructor’s title is 2/5.

Max Verstappen: The bookies have forgotten the Red Bull driver has won more points than Lewis Hamilton during the past four race weekends. ©GettyImages/Red Bull Content Pool

With the scores reading 351.5 vs 343.5, there is a bigger margin between leader Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton in the World Drivers Championship. Nevertheless, it is the British Mercedes driver the bookmaker’s favor. Hamilton is 4/6 to take his eighth world championship.

Clearly, bookmaker’s odds compilers are expecting big things from Hamilton over the next two race weekends. The 36-year-old seemingly has the momentum. He won the last two races and finished second in the two before that.

But it is lost on many that Verstappen has garnered even more points over the same period. He too has won two races and taken two seconds. Additionally, he claimed two points for finishing second in a sprint race at Sao Paulo.

On that assessment Max Verstappen, at the 5/2 offered by Unibet, looks a better proposition to win on Sunday than 1/2 favorite Lewis Hamilton.

What to Expect From the All-New Jeddah Circuit?

Modern-day Formula One is all about horses for courses. Clearly, most people are predicting the Saudi Grand Prix Circuit in Jeddah will be better suited to Mercedes than Red Bull.

It is difficult to be confident as this is an all-new track. It is undoubtedly a fast street circuit with long flat-out sections and several high-speed corners. Lined by barriers, all drivers know they cannot afford to make a mistake. It could be race-ending.

It may have more corners than any other Formula One track, but the Jeddah Corniche Street Circuit is expected to be devilishly fast. ©MercedesF1

The Jeddah Circuit has the most corners of any track on the Formula One calendar. There are 27 in total – 16 left-handers and 11 right-handers. Alongside Bahrain, Austria and Mexico, Jeddah is one of only four circuits on the current calendar that feature three separate DRS (drag reduction system) zones.

At 6.174 km long, the Jeddah Grand Prix venue is the second-longest circuit in Formula One, behind only Spa-Francorchamps. Because of the long track length, energy management is very difficult, which puts more focus on the performance of the MGU-H (motor generator unit-heat) and hybrid systems.

Similar to Baku and Silverstone, the track layout at Jeddah is expected to be more focused towards a lower-drag, lower-downforce wing level.

To the Layman and Punters, What Does All This Mean?

Let’s work in reverse order and review the history books… Max Verstappen had the Baku Grand Prix at his mercy. He was set to win commandingly before an exploding tire cost him a certain victory.

In Silverstone, Verstappen won the sprint qualifying race and started the race from pole position. He was long odds-on to claim victory, but Hamilton collided with him on the opening lap taking the Dutchman out of the race.

Verstappen probably lost points at Spa-Francorchamps (Belgium) too. During this forgettable weekend, he had set the fastest time in two practice sessions and claimed pole position by a big margin.

Unrelenting race-day rain meant the contest was abandoned after just four slow-speed laps were completed. The Red Bull driver was the official winner of the race. But under the circumstances, he only received half of the normal quota of points.

In Bahrain, Max topped every timesheet in practice and qualifying. He also momentarily led the race but due to confusion with track limits, he had to return the lead to Hamilton and controversially finished second beaten less than a second.

There were two races in Austria this season. Max qualified on pole in both and won both by huge margins. Mexico, less than a month ago… another dominating performance by Verstappen. He won the race with over 15 seconds to spare.

It Has to Be Max on Percentages

And so, if Saudi Arabia has as many similarities with Spa, Baku, Silverstone, Austria, Mexico and Bahrain as its spec indicates, Max Verstappen’s odds of 5/2 – which equates to just 28.6 percent – massively underestimate his chances of winning on Sunday.

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