Tory Party Leadership: Punters Are Placing Their Trust in Truss
Five quick rounds of voting by Conservative MPs narrowed the race for a new Tory party leader to two last week. The candidates that remain are Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, Liz Truss and former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak.
Liz Truss is favorite to become the next Conservative leader. ©GettyImages
Outgoing Prime Minister, Boris Johnson took his final Prime Minister’s Questions at the House of Commons last Wednesday. His closing remarks were followed by a standing ovation from the Conservative benches. However, his predecessor Theresa May did not join in with the applause.
Interestingly, Johnson did not become Prime Minister via a public vote, he assumed the role when winning the 2019 Conservative Party leadership election instigated by May’s resignation.
The Party Vote Closes in September
Once again, the country will be led by a Conservative leader that has not been chosen by the public. The decision on who will succeed Johnson and become the next Prime Minister is still down to a vote. The electorate is Tory party members.
The Conservative party does not divulge its membership numbers. It is estimated to be between 140,000 and 200,000. Every member that joined the organization before June 3, 2022, gets an opportunity to vote.
Ballot forms are due to arrive with members at the start of August and voting will close at 5 pm on September 2. The winner will be announced on September 5. It is highly likely they will formally become Prime Minister the following day.
Candidates Hope to Hit Hard and Early
Tory members have more than a month to make their decisions and cast their votes. However, political advisors and bookmakers are acutely aware that postal ballots have historically shown people tend to cast their votes almost immediately.
Resultantly, candidates need to place a premium on hard-hitting early campaigning. Similarly, bookmakers and punters believe it is important to heed results from the early polls.
Sunak received 38.3 percent of the votes from 355 Conservative MPs in the decisive three-way ballot between him, Liz Truss, and the eliminated Penny Mordaunt. As Truss received 31.6 percent of the vote, Sunak began this race as the 10/11 favorite.
Early Polls Make Bookmakers Trust Truss
But these MP votes now count for nothing and, following the publication of YouGov research on Thursday afternoon, bookmakers took avoiding action. YouGov’s poll of Tory members’ voting intentions indicates Truss will receive 62 percent of the membership vote and easily land the coveted Premiership.
Consequently, the leading online betting sites slashed the odds of Truss winning the vote. By Friday, the 47-year-old was priced at 2/5. But before joining the stampede and investing in what may seem to be a formality, there are two important factors to consider.
Firstly, the YouGov poll used a small sample size. Just 730 people were polled. It means there must be a significant margin for error. Secondly, bookmakers and polls have got countless election results wrong in recent years. In 2016 Hillary Clinton lost the US election despite trading at odds of 1/6 a month before voting closed. Three days before Brexit votes were counted, the odds about the UK remaining in the European Union was 1/5.
