Will the US Grand Prix Deliver Another Big-Priced Winner?

by Roy Brindley, 15 October 2025

History suggests not everything will go to form in this weekend’s US Grand Prix in Texas.

Big crowds, big elevation, big flags, the Circuit of the Americas has it all going on. © Getty

Key Facts:

• The US Grand Prix is one of the most popular races on the F1 calendar.
• Over 400,000 people are predicted to visit the Circuit of the Americas.
• Verstappen’s Championship hopes are alive as McLaren rivals’ stumble.
• Race winners rarely convert pole position, making outsiders a bet.

Formula 1 is back in North America with Round 19 of an increasingly unpredictable season at the Circuit of the Americas this weekend. Since hosting its first US Grand Prix in 2012, the Austin venue has become one of the most popular destinations on the F1 calendar.

Dramatic elevation changes, a breathtaking first turn, and a blend of high-speed straights and technical sections make this track a firm favorite with fans. Over 400,000 people are predicted to visit the Texan circuit over its annual three days of F1 action.

A fourth Sprint of the year, staged on Saturday afternoon, will give fans two races to savor over the one action-packed weekend. Max Verstappen has won the last two Sprints in Texas. He has also claimed three of the previous four races in Austin.

8/1 Max Effort Will Be Rewarded With the Title

At the top of the World Drivers’ Championship, McLaren teammates Oscar Piastri and Lando are stumbling towards the winning line. Twenty-two points separate the duo, who have not claimed a race victory since the Dutch Grand Prix in August.

In a shock but fair result, Mercedes’ George Russell won the most recent contest in Singapore. It is Max Verstappen, who took second in the Asian island city-state, who has the momentum. With recent victories in Italy and Azerbaijan, his form figures read 2-1-1-2.

Despite trailing Oscar Piastri by 63 points in the championship standings, online sportsbooks believe the Dutchman can bridge the gap in the final six races of 2025. While being sure to gamble responsibly, Verstappen’s fans can avail of 8/1 odds on their hero taking the title for a fifth time.

What To Expect From the US Grand Prix

Circuit of the Americas is one of nine tracks on the 2025 Formula 1 calendar that is fully anticlockwise. The others are Jeddah, Miami, Imola, Baku, Singapore, Interlagos, Las Vegas, and Yas Marina.

Only Jeddah has more corners, and the steep incline from the starting grid to the apex at Turn 1 – 134 feet is unique. Despite a bottleneck at the opening turn, particularly on the opening lap, safety cars are rarely called into play.

In just four Circuit of the Americas F1 races has the pace car has been deployed. 2015 was the most calamitous year with eight drivers failing to complete the race distance. Half of these suffered from mechanical issues.

It’s almost time for @f1 to return stateside 🇺🇸 Don’t miss when the lights go out in Austin for the #USGP ⏩ https://t.co/1olg3pMuAT pic.twitter.com/zAy2A6rXUd

— Circuit of The Americas (@COTA) September 30, 2025

History also shows this circuit tends to string cars out. Margins of defeat can regularly exceed a minute, and it would be no surprise if six or more cars were lapped in Sunday’s race.

Race Weekend F1 Start Times

• Practice 1. Friday (12.30-13.30 local)
• Sprint Qualifying. Friday (16.30-17.15 local)
• Sprint. Saturday (12.00-12.30 local)
• Qualifying. Saturday (16.00-17.00 local)
• Race. Sunday (16.00 local)

What Are the Best Bets for the US Grand Prix?

US Sportsbooks cannot decide between Verstappen, Norris, and Piastri in the Sprint. The trio is +200 on the moneyline. Verstappen and Norris are +200 in the race market, and Piastri is +250. Driving a Mercedes that is difficult to predict, Russell can be backed on +1,200 odds.

Statistically, two things stand out. Only four of the US Grand Prix’s 12 previous winners have started from pole position. Similarly, only one previous race winner, Sebastian Vettel in 2013, has recorded the fastest lap of the race.

Last year, Esteban Ocon, who finished a lap behind the race winner, claimed the fastest lap in the US Grand Prix. In 2023, Yuki Tsunoda finished the race in ninth, almost 90 seconds behind the winner, Max Verstappen. Nevertheless, like Ocon, he shocked everyone by recording the fastest lap.

Predicting who will claim the distinction in 2025 is tough. The big three of Verstappen, Norris, and Piastri will take a chunk of the book. And so, a ‘scattergun’ approach where bettors play a handful of big-priced drivers for small stakes cannot be discouraged.