U.S. Presidential Race 2024: Trump Backed as Biden Bombs in Polls
In August we reported how President Joe Biden had maintained his popularity with the U.S. electorate and enjoyed a 50 percent approval rating 200 days into his presidency. Since then, it has all been downhill. Month-on-month the 79-year-old’s popularity has waned. His ratings are now at an all-time low.
If the American public went to the ballot boxes tomorrow, it is unlikely Joe Biden would fare too well. ©GettyImages
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted between November 15-19 put Biden’s approval ratings at 33 percent on inflation, a slightly better at 36 percent on immigration, 39 percent on the economy at large and 44 percent on race relations.
Only on the subject of Covid-19 vaccine distribution did the majority of those polled express their satisfaction. 53 percent of respondents stated they approved of his efforts in that department.
Price Unchanged as Biden Reportedly Running Again
Despite the poor figures and the fact Joe Biden will be 82 when the next election comes around, last week White House press secretary Jen Psaki stated it is his “intention” to run for the Presidency in 2024.
Bookmakers did not react to the news. In the 2024 Presidential election market, he was left unchanged at 5/1 and that is his biggest price ever. Biden was 9/4 to win a second election when we wrote on the subject in August.
At that point, priced 7/4, Vice President Kamala Harris was the more fancied contender. However, the 57-year-old – the highest-ranking female official in U.S. history – has drifted alarmingly in the betting. She can now be backed at 13/2.
Trump No Has Big Leads in Five Key States
The new favorite, and big mover in ‘the next President’ market, is Donald Trump. 7/1 in mid-summer, the former leader is currently top-priced 10/3 at the William Hill sportsbook.
The results of two recent polls have probably contributed to this dramatic price shift. Firstly, a recent Quinnipiac poll showed 78 percent of Republicans now want to see Donald Trump run for President in 2024. The figure was 66 percent in May.
Secondly, five states that were decisive in Trumps’ 2020 election failure have recently been re-polled by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates on behalf of the former leader. The results were staggering. In 2020 the Republicans lost Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by three percentage points or less.
However, the hypothetical ballot shows Trump now leads Biden by three percentage points in Georgia, six points in Pennsylvania, eight points in Arizona, 10 points in Wisconsin and 12 points in Michigan.
A Non-Runner Is a Losing Bet
Resultantly BetVictor has Trump priced at 5/4 to be the Republican candidate at the next election. That is despite him stating: “I am actually not allowed to answer that question” when asked by Fox News if he will be running for election in 2024 late last week.
Of course, unlike horse racing, there are no ‘non-runner no-bet’ terms in this market. With his intentions unclear, is that price appealing? Afterall, many believe he will not make a concerted effort to get his old job back.
“Donald will not run,” Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney and fixer told CNN last week. “He has an incredibly fragile ego. He lost by nine million votes the first time [the figure was actually seven million] and he will lose by more than nine million the second time. His fragile ego cannot stand to be considered a two-time loser,” Cohen concluded.
Republican Alternatives
Ron DeSantis, the 43-year-old Florida Governor, sits next in the Republican Presidential candidate betting. He is an unchanged 5/1. Nikki Haley, the former Governor of South Carolina and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, has drifted slightly but she is still the third favorite at 7/1.
It is inevitable new names will emerge as potential candidates for both parties. But, as the latest bookmaker odds suggest, the winning party is too close to call. While BetVictor is offering 11/10 about a Republican winner, a few rival firms go even-money about the Democrats.
Even the likelihood of an Independent candidate winning has the bookmakers divided. Betway offer just 12/1 about this outcome. William Hill has dismissed it as a 33/1 shot.
Will the Favorites Make It to the Starting Gate?
The 60th Presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 5th 2024. The winner is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20th, 2025. At this point in time, Joe Biden will be 82; Donald Trump 78.
Whichever way you may decide to bet, being totally pragmatic, it is worth considering the average male life expectancy in the United States of America is 76.3 years!
